Apr 21, 2010 6:11 PM CET
As of this morning, in conjunction of the release of our interim report Jan-Mar 2010, we updated our guidance.
The following should be considered when you make a valuation of Tele2:
The following points should be considered when estimating 2010 for the group:
• Tele2 forecasts a corporate tax rate of approximately 22 (earlier 20) percent excluding one-off items. The tax payment will affect cash flow by approximately SEK 800 (earlier 700) million due to better than expected operational performance in Tele2 Russia.
• Tele2 forecasts a CAPEX level in the range of SEK 4,600–4,800 million.
The following assumptions should be taken into account when estimating the Swedish mobile operations in 2010:
• Tele2 will continue to target the postpaid segment resulting in a full year EBITDA margin in the range of 33-35 percent depending on customer intake.
Tele2 has GSM licenses in 37 regions in Russia covering approximately 61 million inhabitants. The Russian operations have been divided into 17 old regions and 20 new regions. The following assumptions should be taken into account when estimating the operational performance of the total operations in Russia 2010-2011:
• Subscriber base should be able to reach 19-20 (earlier 18-19) million by YE 2011.
• Accumulated ARPU growth should amount to 5 percent in local currency.
• EBITDA margin in the old regions should stabilize at 45 percent (earlier evolve in the range of 40-45 percent). EBITDA contribution in 2010 from new regions should be in the range of SEK -600 to -800 million (earlier SEK -700 to -900 million). The new regions’ EBITDA margin should break even 2 years from commercial launch. Tele2 Russia’s total EBITDA margin should evolve in the range of 27-32 (earlier 25-30) percent.
• Accumulated Capex in Russia should be in the range of SEK 4,500-5,000 million by YE 2011.
The following assumptions should be taken into account when estimating the Croatian mobile operations in 2010:
• Tele2 Croatia will reach EBITDA break-even by 2H 2010